Brexit is finally done. It will leave the UK poorer

 Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Julia Horowitz, CNN Business

London (CNN Business)The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed on a trade deal, closing the book on more than four years of uncertainty over how the country would conduct business with its biggest export market following Brexit.

UK companies are heaving a collective sigh of relief at retaining tariff-free trade with a market of 450 million consumers that buys more than 40% of Britain's exports and provides more than half its imports. The country left the European Union on Jan. 31 but had continued to enjoy its previous trade privileges under transitional arrangements.

The deal spares the United Kingdom some of the most dire potential consequences from Brexit as it battles a crippling pandemic, and should give a short-term boost to the economy. But the trade agreement will still leave the country poorer at a time when it faces a jobs crisis and the worst recession in more than 300 years.

"The United Kingdom has chosen to leave the European Union and the single market, to renounce the benefits and advantages held by member states," EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told reporters. "Our agreement does not reproduce these rights and benefits, and therefore despite this agreement there will be real changes in a few days from now."

The new relationship is expected to lead to a long-run loss of output of around 4% compared to remaining in the European Union, according to the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces economic forecasts for the government. Leaving the EU's single market and customs area means higher costs for UK companies, which could lead to higher consumer prices and even more job losses, as well as reduced export prospects, economists say.

Another drawback: The deal appears to mostly cover trade in goods, where the United Kingdom has a deficit with its EU neighbors, and excludes key service industries like finance, where it currently enjoys a surplus.

"The good news is that a disruptive and acrimonious 'no deal' has been avoided," JPMorgan's Malcolm Barr wrote in a research note Thursday before the deal was finalized. "The bad news for the UK, in our view, is that the EU appears to have secured a deal which allows it to retain nearly all of the advantages it derives from its trading relationship with the UK, while giving it the ability to use regulatory structures to cherry pick among the sectors where the UK had previously enjoyed advantages in the trading relationship."

Here are some of the major challenges facing the battered UK economy when the Brexit transition ends on Jan. 1.

Trade barriers

UK companies are losing unfettered access to the European Union. While a deal means that exporters have been spared the pain of having costly tariffs slapped on their goods, new import and export declarations alone will cost UK companies £7.5 billion ($10.3 billion) annually, according to Britain's revenue authority.

Costs will rise rapidly if new customs checks delay goods at the border and snarl supply chains, forcing factories to pause production. UK ports are already gridlocked, partly as a result of stockpiling ahead of Brexit, with industry groups representing retailers and food producers warning that pressure will only increase when the transition period ends.

Even before France abruptly closed the border following a warning from UK officials of a new, more infectious coronavirus variant, Honda was forced to halt production at a major plant in England for three days in December because it couldn't get the parts it needed.

While the government will phase in border checks over the coming months to avoid choking off vital supplies, truckers and transportation companies are among those warning of dire consequences. Rod McKenzie, head of policy and public affairs at the Road Haulage Association, told CNN Business earlier this month that supply chain hiccups could mean that factories aren't able to work. There could also be "gaps on supermarket shelves," he added.

That situation could be made worse by backups from this week. While France has reopened ferry ports and the Eurotunnel rail link, thousands of trucks remained stranded Wednesday morning with their drivers waiting for the negative Covid-19 tests they need to travel. Supermarkets such as Tesco (TSCDY) and Sainsbury's (JSAIY) were struggling to keep their shelves stocked with fresh fruit and vegetables, and Toyota (TM) closed its UK and French plants early for Christmas.

"The clock is still very much ticking for businesses," Jonathan Geldart, director general of the Institute of Directors, a lobby group, said in a statement Thursday. "Digesting what the changes mean in practice and adapting, in the middle of a pandemic and the festive season while border disruptions continue, is a huge ask."

Worker shortages

Britain's new immigration system, which takes effect in January, is designed to reduce the number of unskilled workers coming to the United Kingdom and end what the government describes as the country's "reliance on cheap, low-skilled labor."

Immigration was a key issue in the 2016 Brexit referendum. As an EU member, Britain was part of a bloc that allowed the free movement of people. That meant companies were able to easily employ EU citizens in sectors such as farming, social care and the National Health Service.

The number of EU workers coming to the United Kingdom has fallen sharply since 2016, and employers are worried about labor shortages, even though immigration from non-EU countries has been on the rise.

UK farms need 70,000 to 80,000 seasonal workers each year for a successful harvest, according to the National Farmers' Union. The NFU is lobbying government to introduce a seasonal worker program, without which some farmers have warned that in the worst case crops could be left in the fields to rot.

"Workers from outside the UK are absolutely vital to the success of our horticultural sector," NFU vice president Tom Bradshaw told CNN Business last week. "We are at a critical time in recruitment for many growers. As freedom of movement ends on Dec. 31, [growers] still don't know where they will recruit experienced workers from."

Loss of investment

Years of uncertainty over the future terms of EU trade have already damaged the UK economy. GDP growth in the three years after the June 2016 Brexit referendum slowed to 1.6% as business investment stagnated, according to analysts at Berenberg.

Greater clarity over Britain's future relationship with the European Union could help. A survey conducted by EY in April found that 24% of investors regard Brexit as a risk factor, down from 38% last year. According to EY, there was a slight increase in the number of inbound foreign direct investment projects into Britain in 2019, ending three years of decline.

"A deal [will] unlock significant investment in UK and support the recovery once the ongoing coronavirus shock starts to fade," Berenberg economists told clients Thursday.

But there's still a risk that foreign companies, including Japanese carmakers such as Nissan (NSANF) and Honda (HMC), will no longer view the United Kingdom as a launchpad into Europe.

That may already be happening. Chinese investment across the whole of Europe has increased since the Brexit referendum but declined in the United Kingdom, said EY. Global banks have been moving some of their operations out of London to cities in the European Union.

Financial services snags

Worries that London would quickly lose its status as Europe's financial capital to the likes of Frankfurt or Paris after the Brexit vote in 2016 have turned out to be overstated.

The United Kingdom remains the world's biggest net exporter of financial services, with its £60.3 billion ($81.6 billion) trade surplus in 2019 outpacing rivals including the United States, Switzerland and Singapore, according to a report by TheCityUK, a lobby group.

Still, international financial services firms have migrated £1.2 trillion ($1.6 trillion) worth of assets and relocated 7,500 jobs from Britain to the European Union since the 2016 referendum, according to publicly available data tracked by EY. Dublin, Luxembourg, Frankfurt and Paris have been the major beneficiaries.

The European Union and United Kingdom have not yet struck a deal that will give UK banks and asset managers access to European markets. EU regulators are unlikely to let London keep the benefits of the single market without its obligations.

"While a deal is welcome, financial and related professional services are clear-eyed about the need for both sides to continue to develop the relationship in services in the years ahead," Miles Celic, CEO of TheCityUK, said in a statement Thursday.

Some outside countries receive preferential market access rights from the European Union, a standard known as "equivalence." The level of market access is worse than what the United Kingdom currently enjoys, but it's the best the country can hope for once outside the European Union.

Major banks say they have prepared for Brexit, and the new terms of trade with the European Union won't disrupt their operations while negotiations continue over equivalence.

Source : edition.cnn.com

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Getting Rich Quickly Is Easy

 This new way is jumping on around the world. People are strengthening money rapidly for themselves. 

Its called "open entryway theory" and it has nothing to do with the customary strategy to contribute. Stocks, bonds, shares, etc 

This is hands on. The entire explanation relies upon compounding and transforming into the "monetary expert source" 

You see when we hand over our resources for "specialists" to contribute our capital we debilitate our benefits definitely. It looks good taking everything into account. They have no income or help to make reestablishes any better then maybe 10% if you are blessed. 

"Opportunity Adventure" is a term that depicts the path toward accepting risk for your own resources. Therefore transforming into your own "monetary expert source" This implies you choose by your consistently exercises and decisions, what your benefits will be. I have supervised over 2500% consistently and it was straightforward. Starting with just $100 and precipitously, I heightened that in to $1 million dollars inside 27 months 

I discovered this 5 years earlier. There is a book created by an individual who initiated this condition and lives the results reliably. Hayden Muller. The book is assigned "inside restrictive advancements to an ethical open entryway monetary subject matter expert" 

The contemplation is to recognize "hypothesis dissents" that are contributed with "excess common worth" By seeing advantage where others don't we put ourselves in the circumstance to move to this subtle set aside flexible regard and change it into benefits which we pyramid and compound into a quick fortune. 

Its my evaluation that this isn't new in any capacity. I acknowledge, this is the limited way that all "high absolute resources individuals" found for themselves. What is novel and new is the way in which its packaged as a book and revealed straightforwardly to all who choose to see its worth. 

I am so astonished with it, much the same as my accomplices, that we put assets into an online resource for grant to the various who successfully compound their wealth rapidly and irrefutably bit by bit. (Theres an interface with the site under if you wish to discover extra) 

Theres rebellion recognizable for what it's worth. Standard people are embarking to pursue their underlying million and taking it. Millions are not substance to work their whole lives, by then leave at that point pass on. They express it by their exercises. They are living in gigantic pleasant homes. They are sending their youths to extraordinary schools, driving good vehicles and continuing with the presence they pick today not tommorow. 

We are fundamental for that adjustment in context and we fan the flares with data. Wealth tutoring need not be bewildered. Your wealth preparing could be alot more clear and direct in case you pick it to be. Less unpredictable is for each situation better, and opportunity adventure is the no nonsense. The structure is lively and direct. Take it and acquire like the various who as of now do.

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Biden's post-election stock market bump is easily beating Trump's

 By Matt Egan, CNN Business

New York (CNN Business)The Biden era is off to a roaring start on Wall Street, even surpassing the euphoria following President Donald Trump's upset victory in 2016.

The S&P 500 has surged 10% since Election Day to all-time highs. That nearly doubles the 5.5% rally during the same post-election period in 2016.

The Nasdaq, lifted by high-flying tech stocks including Amazon (AMZN) and Zoom (ZM), is up a stunning 15% since November 3. That almost triples the Nasdaq's 5% post-election bump of four years ago.

Those are impressive returns, especially considering Trump repeatedly warned stocks would "crash" if Americans failed to reelect him. That has hardly been the case, at least so far.

Even though President-elect Joe Biden might have (very) early bragging rights, Wall Street's post-election celebration is not solely -- or even primarily -- about Biden's victory. Instead, the gains are being driven both by a sense of relief that nightmare election scenarios were avoided and, perhaps most importantly, that vaccines will hopefully help end the pandemic.

"Certainly, there were a lot of concerns prior to the election that it could lead to social and political unrest," said Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory firm Yardeni Research. "There have been no riots in the streets. The market focused on the fact that the constitutional system still works."

Goldilocks for stocks

Investors are also relieved that neither party will have free reign to impose sweeping new policies in 2021. The "blue wave" didn't materialize and Republicans unexpectedly gained seats in the House of Representatives.

Unless Democrats sweep both January runoffs in Georgia, the GOP will retain control of the Senate. Even if Democrats win those Georgia races, they will hardly have a supermajority, although with a 50/50 split, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the deciding vote to break any deadlocks.

"All of this suggests that the more extreme ideas, on the left or the right, won't become law. That's being celebrated," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

For instance, Democrats will have little shot at sharply raising taxes on corporations or the wealthy. Biden's sweeping climate legislation is very likely to be blocked by Republicans. Only infrastructure stands a chance of breaking through the gridlock.

Trump bashed Biden during the campaign as "Sleepy Joe," but many investors wouldn't mind a break from the chaos and unpredictability of the Trump era. The latest example occurred Tuesday night when Trump shocked even his allies by threatening to block the bipartisan $900 billion relief package.

"For investors, this is somewhat the best of both worlds," Arone said of the election outcome. "You get a more predictable foreign and trade policy while your domestic policy doesn't seem as progressive as some of the worst fears."

Vaccines to the rescue

The post-election rally kicked into high gear after Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announced November 9 that their vaccine is highly effective against Covid-19. Moderna (MRNA) followed suit with a similar announcement a week later. Both vaccines have since received emergency-use authorization from the FDA.

"It gave investors confidence that there is a light at the end of the tunnel," Arone said.

That's why Wall Street has largely looked past skyrocketing Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Not all markets are outpacing their post-election performance of 2016. For instance, the Dow's 10% leap since Election Day is only narrowly ahead of its 9% gain during the same period of 2016.

The Fed factor

Of course, the economic world is very different today than it was four years ago.

Back then, the recovery from the Great Recession was showing signs of old age. Investors believe this recovery is just getting started -- and they don't want to miss out on the market gains (especially if they did last time).

"The central question in 2016 was: How do you keep the recovery going?" said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. "The question now is what kind of recovery will there be from the worst recession since the Great Depression."

And unlike in 2016, the Federal Reserve is not itching to lift interest rates out of the basement anytime soon. In June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates."

More recently, the Fed promised to keep its foot on the stimulus pedal. At its December meeting, the central bank pledged to keep buying bonds "by at least" the same pace until more progress is made in repairing the economy.

That backdrop of easy Fed policy is essentially forcing investors to bet on stocks. And it's far more important to investors than politics.

"Whoever is sitting at the Resolute Desk doesn't matter to markets," Colas said. "What matters is policy."

Melt-up fears

The bigger question now is whether this rally has gotten out of hand.

Not only are stocks booming, but the IPO market is also red-hot, as evidenced by the monstrous debuts of DoorDash and Airbnb. Investors are plowing money into blank-check companies known as SPACs. And the M&A market is gaining steam.

"There are some red flags to suggest the market is a bit overheated," said State Street's Arone. "It wouldn't surprise me if you saw a 5% to 10% correction in the first quarter. That would be healthy."

Yardeni is also hoping the market cools off.

"A correction would be a good way to keep the bull market on track without a major meltdown," said Yardeni. "Melt-ups, by definition and by experience, are followed by meltdowns. They're fun on the way up and painful on the way down."

In other words, Wall Street's biggest worry at this stage of the pandemic is that things might be going a bit too well.

By contrast, Main Street is struggling just to get by -- and hoping Washington comes to the rescue with more aid.

It's yet another reminder of America's K-shaped recovery and the stark unfairness of economic life in 2020.

Source : edition.cnn.com

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Why Should Business Owners Use Credit Facilities?

 As a business visionary, you're designed to appreciate a more prominent degree of danger than the normal individual. 

However, do you appreciate the adventure of business and contributing so much that you're willing to hazard: 

- Being nagged by banks? 

- Opting for non-payment? 

- Being denied a home loan? 

- Paying too much of interest on your advances? 

- Losing your home? 

In the event that you addressed "no" to at least one of these inquiries, this might be the main report you've perused in quite a while. 

Since, in case you're similar to most business visionaries, financial specialists, and entrepreneurs I've met in the course of recent years, you're at risk for confronting these terrible issues. 

What's more, it's all a result of your business. 

Entrepreneurs ordinarily commit at least one monetarily decimating errors when financing the dispatch, activity and additionally development of their organizations. By and large, they don't understand that they're committing an error. 

Furthermore, to come clean, in any event, when they do acknowledge they're committing an error … they calm themselves into believing that the outcomes will be a minor inconvenience. 

Until, at some point, they can't fit the bill for a home loan. Or then again they can't get the to-bite the dust for financing offered on the new vehicle they're purchasing. Or on the other hand they're nagged by leasers and at last need to opt for non-payment. 

Also, it is all since they utilize their individual accounting records to finance the dispatch or development of their business. They at that point utilize individual Visas to pay for operational expense. In the event that you are ready to go or contemplating beginning a business, business credit is an unquestionable requirement. 

Allow me to clarify, most entrepreneur have no clue about that they can set up business credit and much less skill to how to set up business credit. On the off chance that proprietors would take the time important to teach themselves about setting up credit they would at this point don't need to go through their own assets for start capital or working capital. 

They would likewise have the option to utilize business Visas which don't answer to their own credit reports, accordingly, not bringing down the individual financial assessments. 

The main objective of business credit however is to get unstable business credit extensions, which should be possible once the business credit profile is set up appropriately. When a business acquires unstable business credit extensions, they at that point have the working capital they need to begin a business or extend their business. The entrepreneur has check book control to utilize the business credit extensions as they wish. What's more, the best part is that the business credit extensions don't answer to the entrepreneur's very own credit report. 

In the event that you have set up your business profile effectively there are various banks that will loan to pristine new company. That is correct, pristine new company with no history at all. The banks will broaden unstable business credit extensions so they can have the beginning up capital they need to back the matter they had always wanted. 

No doubt about it; business credit is an Absolute necessity for each entrepreneur. Try not to put your own resources in danger account or asset your business!

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What are the Affiliate Requests?

 Is there an interest for subsidiary advertisers today? Truly, there is an enormous interest. One of the difficulties looked in the member showcasing industry is that it here and there sounds unrealistic: promoting that is ensured to work or it's free! Newcomers keep thinking about whether it's conceivable, and cynics guarantee that the savvy costs of partner promoting bring down the bar for web based publicizing. Yet, there is a valid justification that offshoot promoting has encountered consistent development all through the high points and low points of internet publicizing—it works. Also, subsidiary advertising has advanced to turn into a dependable wellspring of deals for a wide scope of advertisers. 

Associate showcasing has developed from the early years when some promoted it as the fate of internet publicizing, and others asserted it was the ruin of the medium. It's presently a refined channel that produces somewhere in the range of five to 25% of online deals for huge numbers of the world's greatest brands. 

Practically all major multi-channel advertisers have an associate program or something to that affect. The significant thing to recall is that associate projects currently come in all shapes and sizes. The idea of an all the way open member program with a limitless and uncontrolled number of subsidiaries is a relic of days gone by. Virtually all advertisers concur that associates enhance a web based showcasing exertion, however the program should be customized to meet the advertiser's goals. 

Member promoting didn't stop other, more extravagant types of online media publicizing. The achievement of the subsidiary promoting in conveying deals cost viably via a compensation for-execution model prepared for different types of execution based publicizing, for example, CPA-based inquiry and entryway publicizing, to make acknowledgment among direct advertisers. Associate promoting has advanced, with subsidiaries and advertisers getting more modern and projects more coordinated with different types of internet showcasing.

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